Why I’m hopeful for Obama; and what if it’s a tie?
Watching the gyrations of this election has been diverting, but really, the road from here is not going to change no matter what happens this week in Minnesota. All right: maybe they’ll discover Sarah Palin is a Muslim, or find old tapes of her pastor denouncing America as the modern Sodom, or some other explosive revelation will knock her from the ticket and leave the GOP in awful disarray. Barring that, this race will come down to what it has been coming down to ever since it became a clear Obama/McCain contest: A handful of swing states will tip the election to one candidate or the other.
I’ve been hopeful for an Obama victory, and friends and relatives sometimes give me that fearful-Democrat look that has become prevalent over the past decade — that frown of “I’m worried, we screwed it up so many times in the past, the Republicans will find some way yet again to squeeze out a victory.” And sure, it could happen. But here’s why I think it won’t.
(1) Yes, it’s true that there will be more people voting against Obama because of his race than the polls are capturing. But the Obama campaign’s prodigious and effective get-out-the-vote effort, and its ability to pull in new voters among the young, will counterbalance the negative race vote, effectively canceling it out. So I’m not worried about it.
(2) The popular vote doesn’t matter. The electoral college chooses the president. So the map is really all that counts. And the map doesn’t look so bad. There are a number of combinations of states that get Obama over 270. For McCain to even have a shot, he’s got to win all of the big swing states (FL, OH, VA); then he also must either wrest something like PA or MI from the Obama column or, alternately, win in a whole bunch of smaller swing states like CO, NV, and NH. He could do it, but the stars will have to align just right for him. Obama can win without FL, OH or VA if he pulls it out in a few of those other states. He’s just got more roads to a win right now.
(3) What’s keeping me up at night is the possibility of an electoral college tie. You can see how easily this could happen from the recent electoral maps: If Obama holds all the Kerry states and in addition wins Iowa and Nevada and New Mexico but loses Colorado (or if he wins Iowa and Colorado but loses Nevada and NM) then he comes out with 269 electoral votes and so does McCain. Constitutional madness! The election goes to the House, but each state delegation casts one vote. Consensus seems to be that Obama has the edge in that scenario. But it’s a mess no matter how you play it out, and as we saw in 2000 the GOP is far more willing to play hardball in such circumstances. Still, any electoral-college tie is likely to involve Obama having the lead in the popular vote; the constitution doesn’t care about that — and it didn’t matter in 2000 — but it ought to put at least some weight in the scales with wavering congressional delegations.
Wordyard RSS feed
September 3rd, 2008 at 5:18 am
Other than the “people won’t vote for Obama because he’s black” nonsense, this is a refreshing change from what’s going on in the media recently. You mention a lot of valid points.
I wouldn’t worry about a tie. Obama’s got that one wrapped up if it goes there. A bigger problem would be the VP choice as the Senate gets to decide who will get it. With Lieberman going with the Republicans, I have no idea what the score is, but it’d be funny to see Palin as Obama’s VP. Bet no one’s thought of that. Late night TV would have a field day with that one. I also don’t know if it’s the new Senate or the old one who gets to vote.
It’s true that most elections of late come down to a few states, but I think Obama did a big mistake with FL and MI. He’s been polling well in MI, but there’s certain to be some fallback. OH is where Obama needs to fight. If Obama loses OH, it’s all over. McCain has several different strategies available to him if the Republican ticket gets OH.
I really don’t see VA going blue. They said NC was gonna go blue. Then they said NE was going blue. Then GA. Then CO. Now it’s what? VA? Sorry, but they’ll all gonna go red. NC, NE, GA have all turned red recently. CO looks like it’s gonna turn red any day now.
If Dems wanted to win the WH, Hillary had the electoral college wrapped up. She had OH, AR, MO, WV and NV for sure. She also put into play FL, KY and TN. She was on her way to 400 EVs. Not sure what Obama’s game plan is at all. He’s reduced the number of states he’s advertising in to about a dozen. He’s struggling to get OH. If you lose both OH and FL, it’s pretty much over.
I’m amazed that anyone would vote for someone as racist as Obama though. I would never be caught in public admitting to supporting someone who uses his minority status like Obama does with all the race baiting. For anyone that wants to lead a better life, leave people like that behind. Of all the reasons why people won’t vote for Obama, his race is not even on the list. There are too many other issues that Obama will simply fuck up and will set your country backwards by decades.
Take Healthcare. His plan is garbage. I know. I come from a country that has a proper healthcare. People in the US have no idea what they’re missing out on. With Obama’s plan, you’ll initially see benefits, but the insurance companies will still be in charge and they will fight back. This is why Hillary could not get it going 15 years ago BTW. So not only is it ridiculous to think that Obama is going to be able to come up with something that EVERYONE else has missed for 15 years, but you’re also going to have to deal with what will happen when his system fails. Will anyone want to try again?
Healthcare is a VERY costly system. You’re gonna need someone who will stand up for it even in the fiercest opposition. We know Obama is not up to the task as he switches positions all the time and has always backed down when he’s felt any pressure.
So I’m going to say to be careful what you wish for. With Obama, even if you win, you lose. Both tickets are really bad. But Obama is by far the worse choice. No one knows where he stands. What he says is never what he does. Good luck in November. You’re gonna need it no matter who gets in.
September 3rd, 2008 at 6:11 am
“as racist as Obama” “someone who uses his minority status for race baiting”?
Seems to me that you are trolling Saulnier. If you really believe the above statements give me some examples of Obama being racist or using his minority status without resorting to the old, oh his pastor is racist. (Hint: the Trinity united church of christ “is the largest church affiliated with the United Church of Christ, **a predominantly white Christian denomination** with roots in Congregationalism, which branched from American Puritanism.”
September 3rd, 2008 at 8:30 am
I’ve learned to pay no mind to the person who goes by the name of Cleo Saulnier. I suppose it’s difficult to have a political discussion without the loonies jumping in and spewing vile. I looked back on earlier blogs where Scott learnedly explains to Cleo what his thoughts were about some of his writings, but Cleo doesn’t get it. Cleo has an enormous interest in United States politics for someone claiming to be Canadien.
But back to the point, the House has until the fourth of March to select a president, I believe. And of course, they may or may not meet that deadline. Meanwhile, the Senate votes for the VP with no time limit. What happens if the votes are not accomplished? Is the Speaker of the House running things?
September 3rd, 2008 at 9:33 am
Well, Cleo and I have had long and fruitful conversations about software. In politics we’re just, I guess, on different planets. I don’t think of him as a “loonie” and I do prefer to keep as much of the conversation here as civil as is possible. But I’m not going to expend a ton more effort arguing with him — I’ve got a book I’m trying to write, and it’s on a different subject. When Obama takes office we’ll see if his dire predictions pan out :-)
As for the question: I do believe the Speaker takes over (the presidential succession rules kick in that way) — that’s what the references I followed say — but I think that outcome is hugely unlikely.
September 3rd, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Some recent number crunching has shown the “Bradley effect” (where black people receive less votes than predicted by polls) to be inoperative, at least this year.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html
September 4th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
Under the proposed interstate compact, there would never be a tie in the electoral vote because the compact always represents a bloc consisting of a majority of the electoral votes. Thus, an election for President would never be thrown into the House of Representatives (with each state casting one vote) and an election for Vice President would never be thrown into the Senate (with each Senator casting one vote).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
September 8th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
AJ, Obama keeps saying over and over that the Republicans are going to make you scared of him because he doesn’t look like those people on the dollar bill and he has a funny name. Obama even admitted that he was talking about his race. I’m from a minority. I know how this game is played. Obama even says in his book that using the race card is a huge advantage in politics.
BTW, read his books if you want proof of racism. And no one who goes to a racist church for 20 years comes out not being a racist. If a white person went to KKK meetings, they’d be racist, and yet Obama gets a free pass? How does that work? If Obama wasn’t racist, he would have been offended and would have left. Only someone who’s ok with talk of “Bill Clinton did us like he’s done Monica Lewinski” could stay in that church. BTW, that quote from Rev. Wright is racist. The ‘us’ means the black community. There are tons of racist quotes from Rev. Wright. Heck, just read what Black Liberation Theology is all about. Even the title of that theology is racist because it favours one race over others. But don’t take my word for it. Go read what it’s really about.
Anyone that refuses to accept that Obama is a racist says a lot about you. As for me, I’m not afraid to stand up against racism wherever I see it.
September 21st, 2008 at 11:09 am
OBAMA = BETRAYAL
Obama supporters are foolish to think that he will never betray them.
Obama was a close friend of Pastor Wright for TWENTY YEARS.
Obama threw Wright under the bus for personal ambition.
McCain would not betray his country even after 5 years of torture.
You can put lipstick on a traitor, but he’s still a traitor.