Those darn irrational voters
Nick Kristof’s New York Times column today (behind the pay wall, alas) summarizes the findings of a book by Bryan Caplan titled “The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies.” Kristof quotes this summary of the book’s thesis, in Caplan’s words: “This book develops an alternative story of how democracy fails. The central idea is that voters are worse than ignorant; they are, in a word, irrational — and vote accordingly.”
What are the ways in which voters are “worse than ignorant”? Kristof summarizes Caplan’s complaints of “systematic error” in voter rationality: Voters share “a suspicion of market outcomes and a desire to control markets.” They have “an anti-foreign bias,” evidenced by an unwillingness to embrace free trade wholeheartedly. They share “a neo-Luddite bias against productivity gains that come from downsizing or “creative destruction.’” And they have a “pessimistic bias, a tendency to exaggerate economic problems.”
Gee, it sounds like the real problem Caplan has with the voting public is that they don’t agree with the program of conservative economists!
There are a couple of ironies here.
There’s something hilarious about a market-oriented economist complaining about “irrational” behavior. Free-market theory depends on the notion that market participants are rational actors; if they’re irrational, then the whole theory collapses — the market doesn’t behave predictably. For classical economics to work, we need to trade in the populace and get us a better one. The whole thing reminds me of Brecht’s sarcastic suggestion that “the government dissolve the people and elect another.”
But let’s not knock the rabble so fast. Those voters may not be so irrational after all. Free-market economists wish that voters whose jobs are threatened by foreign competition would somehow become farseeing altruists, and trust that the general benefit that free trade provides might eventually lift their boats sometime after the same tide put them out of work. But these “ignorant,” “irrational” voters insist on trying to protect their jobs. The nerve! Why should they think it’s all right to act in their own short-term self-interest? Oh, right, it’s only CEOs and hedge-fund investors who have the economists’ blessing for short-term, self-centered thinking.
Personally, I’m reasonably comfortable with the pro-free-trade argument. But you won’t find me sneering at those who sense that the dynamic of the global economy is not doing them or their families any good.
Caplan is an economist at George Mason University, which (among many other things) is a center for conservative libertarian thinking. His Web site includes a “Libertarian purity test” and his “intellectual autobiography” is replete with references to Ayn Rand — so his perspective, while blinkered, is hardly surprising. But I wonder why Kristof presented the economist’s ideas so uncritically.
July 31st, 2007 at 6:22 am
I think the problem that a lot of those voters have with not protecting their jobs from outside sources is they see no method of reciprocation… most people (understandably) don’t want to move from our country to another in order to get a job that they are a perfect fit for. The opposite is mostly true in other countries, though… a lot of people in most other countries would jump at a chance to come here and work. So, the majority of Americans see things as just letting global economics take us over, and don’t see the flip side of our ability to integrate into a global economic picture.
July 31st, 2007 at 9:37 am
[...] http://www.typingbeagle.org…; http://www.wordyard.com…; [...]
July 31st, 2007 at 4:04 pm
That Mr. Caplan can only see public “irrationality” in terms of its failure to appreciate the virtues of unfettered, maximalist free markets says a lot more about him than it does about the public.
August 1st, 2007 at 8:15 am
Not exactly. Free markets work (better) because rational actors have more opportunities to succeed, and irrational actors fail to get in their way. You don’t need everyone to be rational for a free market economy to work — you just need “enough” people to be rational. Mixed and/or managed economies interfere with that because of two problems:
1. They reward irrationality a lot of the time, and punish rationality at times as well, all of which increases the incidence and degree of market failure.
2. They skew conditions such that rational actors are less generally productive of wealth within the economy, because they pursue personal success in an economy where success and productivity are not as closely aligned.
September 21st, 2007 at 8:25 pm
You are totally on point about Caplan’s bias…. which is that he has none and everyone else’s is fatal…. personally I found the book maddening in its illogical and contradictory arguments, mangled terms, cultural prejudice, and a whole lot of other weaknesses. It’s also pretty scary when you really think about what he is arguing for. Like a lot of cloistered academics, he’s hermetically sealed inside his own thinking and theories, and totally unhinged from the real world… past and present. I won’t recap the whole list of objections here… but it’s on my site. (literalmayhem.com)