Since I’m lucky enough that this blog is read by a decent number of talented software developers and technology managers, it seems like a good place to point to this job posting. Salon is in the market for a VP/technology. If you’re interested or you know someone who might be, read the posting and see if it sounds like a good fit.
Crystal-balling the recession
“This spring’s college graduates are entering the worst job market in 20 years.” A brief Robert Reich op-ed in today’s Times begins with this line. I read it over breakfast and it took me back…
…Because I graduated from college in 1981 and was looking for a job in 1982 — precisely the previous “worst job market” Reich is referring to, 20 years ago. It was the long Reagan recession — a painful, protracted period in U.S. economic history that is largely forgotten today thanks to the rosy hues the Gipper era has inexplicably assumed in the collective memory.
I have a file somewhere of rejection letters from publications I sought employment with — more than one of which along the lines of, “Gee, thanks, kid, you look pretty qualified, but I’m sorry to tell you we just published our last issue.” I ended up tightening my belt and freelancing for a year and a half before finally landing a regular freelance gig at the Boston Phoenix that gradually evolved into steady employment.
Now we’re stuck in another stubborn, graduation-blighting recession. The economics pros refuse to label it as such — supposedly, this recession ended over a year ago — but it sure feels like one to everyone I talk to.
And the important question right now is whether this recession will finally, as Reagan’s did, give way to economic growth and the semblance of prosperity — or whether this is a different kind of beast altogether.
The optimists have the following arguments in their favor: The economy is inherently cyclical, and sooner or later — well, by now, “later” is the only possibility — this downturn must end. And the Fed’s low interest rate policy and the Bush tax cuts (whatever their long-term cost in deficits and Social Security insecurity) provide plenty of anti-recession firepower. Just as the pain of the early ’80s preceded a rest-of-the-decade boom — and, for that matter, the pain of the early ’90s did the same — so we too can expect the sun to start shining any day now.
The pessimists survey the scene and point out that our situation today is inherently different from previous cyclical downturns. In the past, we’ve started with an inflationary trend; the Fed tightened interest rates, plunging the economy into recession but laying the groundwork for new growth as companies learned to do more with less. Today, inflation is dead, interest rates are rock-bottom and the economy is still stalled. The Fed worries about deflation, a threat unknown since the 1930s. And the very fact that nobody is sure what’s going on has a further dampening effect. Meanwhile, the Bush administration’s muddled “Cut taxes now, let our kids pick up the tab” approach is not instilling confidence in business or consumers.
A pessimist, then, views the present economy not as a repeat of the early-’80s or early-’90s style business cycle but as something more akin to the mid-’70s “stagflation” — an anomalous era when we suffered from both inflation and recession at the same time (something that economics orthodoxy insisted was highly unlikely but that those of us who lived through it remember quite vividly). This variety of cycle — the kind of fundamentally out-of-kilter global economy seen in the 1930s and 1970s — is not a two-to-three-year phenomenon; it’s more like a decade-long trauma.
My heart wants to be an optimist here, but my head is definitely feeling pessimistic.
Bush and God, church and state
I have never quite understood New York Times columnist Bill Keller’s take on George W. Bush. Every time Keller tries to zero in on the president — as in a long Times Magazine piece a while back, or in a column today about Bush’s God thing — he starts shuffling his feet, hedging and making apologies. He tells us that he understands important criticisms of the president, but then he finds some grounds upon which to explain that they don’t matter, or they’re not the point, or we shouldn’t worry about them.
In today’s column, Keller tries to argue that, yes, George Bush is driven by his religious belief, but that — since he does not have an overt agenda of converting the heathen or deriving specific political policies from his born-again faith — we should not worry too much. The president’s sense of divine mission? His apparent belief that every decision he makes is the right one because he is fulfilling God’s plan? No fear, says Keller — what’s wrong with self-confidence? Then he cites “John Green of the University of Akron, a scholar of religion in politics,” who “sees it as a perfectly ordinary way for a religious man to understand a task history has presented him.” “For Bush to conclude that this was God’s plan,” Green declares, “is not a whole lot different from a plumber in Akron deciding that God wants him to serve lunch to homeless people.”
Huh? I mean, I’d be delighted if Bush concluded that God wanted him to serve lunch to homeless people! The point that eludes Mr. Green is that the plumber in Akron is not making life-or-death decisions for millions of people, and devising policies that will shape the world economy for a generation. We worry when national leaders assume a mantle of divine destiny. The worry is based on history, not faith.
But the most bizarre passage in Keller’s column is his citation — with what I can only guess is approval — of a particularly ridiculous quote from the writer Gregg Easterbrook, trying to explain how Bush’s Christian faith shapes his policies: ” ‘I suspect Bush takes the view (which may prove right) that the ultimate argument will be between people who believe in something larger than themselves, and people who believe that it’s all an accident of chemistry,’ Mr. Easterbrook said.”
First, note the way Easterbrook — whom the article describes as “a liberal Christian” — stacks his language. If he’d said, “the ultimate argument will be between people who believe in supernatural mumbojumbo, and people who believe in their own powers of observation and reasoning,” we’d complain, rightly, that he’d injected a wildly unfair bias in his description of the disagreement between people of faith and nonbelievers. Instead, he’s turned that bias around and made it invisible — draping all the contradictions and difficulties of religion in the high-flying rhetoric of selfless dedication, and casually denigrating all the insights of the scientific worldview.
Easterbrook, on behalf of Bush, chooses to draw a wildly oversimplified spectrum of personal belief: There seem to be no other choices besides “belief in something larger than yourself” or belief that “it’s all an accident of chemistry.” Yet the two positions are hardly exclusive. I can forthrightly say that I have no belief in any traditional deity; put me firmly in the “accident of chemistry” camp. Yet such an accident is hardly trivial — it is itself full of beauty and wonder. It is very much “something larger than ourselves.” Indeed, there are many things “larger than ourselves” that I, despite my failure to be a “person of faith,” can and do embrace: Empathy, justice, generosity, creativity — none of these require the walls of a church, or trust in a “higher power.” Participants in institutional religions have no monopoly on the possibility of belief.
The real arrogance in Easterbrook’s stance — and one that I think also undergirds Bush’s worldview — is this implication that only people who have accepted Jesus, or Yahweh (or, Bush will add, opening the flaps of his “big tent,” Mohammed), can possibly find meaning in life. And only they can be trusted to find a moral path through life.
This is more complex, and probably more dangerous, than simple religious chauvinism of the “my god is better than your god” brand. Rather, it reflects a wistful desire, if not an active campaign, to turn back the clock to an era when being a non-believer actively disqualified one from participation in civic life. Of course Bush isn’t about to propose religious belief as a qualification for public office; but if we believe former speechwriter David Frum’s statement (repeated by Keller) that, in Bush’s White House, “attendance at Bible study was, if not compulsory, not quite uncompulsory,” then it’s also hard not to believe that Bush would be happy to impose such a requirement if he thought it had any chance of passing constitutional muster.
Keller, of course, is way too muddled to point out the final absurdity in the Easterbrook argument: its dichotomy plainly puts George Bush on the same team as the Sept. 11 killers. Warped and vicious they undoubtedly were; but who can question that they committed their suicidal act on behalf of “something larger than themselves”? No, Mohammed Atta and his crew did not see human life as an “accident of chemistry.” They believed in Allah. Their belief may have been a perversion of mainstream Islam. But belief it was, nonetheless.
So, pace Keller, I’ll continue to put my moral antennae on alert any time a leader starts using his or her own religious faith as a touchstone of civic virtue. It’s not always and inevitably a bad thing — the obvious and legitimate counterargument is the Rev. Martin Luther King. But it’s usually a sign to watch out.
Put the “public” back in the public domain
Lawrence Lessig is looking for a few good congressmen:
| The idea is a simple one: Fifty years after a work has been published, the copyright owner must pay a $1 maintenance fee. If the copyright owner pays the fee, then the copyright continues. If the owner fails to pay the fee, the work passes into the public domain. Based on historical precedent, we expect 98% of copyrighted works would pass into the public domain after just 50 years. They could keep Mickey for as long as Congress lets them. But we would get a public domain. |
It seems that there was one member of congress willing to introduce this bill, but the lobbyists got to him/her. So Prof. Lessig is calling on people to write their representatives and ask them to do something relatively small and achievable to redress the copyright imbalance that prevails today.
| Stanford’s library, for example, has announced a digitization project to digitize books. They have technology that can scan 1,000 pages an hour. They are chafing for the opportunity to scan books that are no longer commercially available, but that under current law remain under copyright. If this proposal passed, 98% of books just 50 years old could be scanned and posted for free on the Internet. |
This, it seems to me, is a good fight, worth giving some long-haul energy.
“The Bug”’s life
One of the things I’m proudest of from my tenure as Salon’s technology editor was whatever role we played in helping the writing of Ellen Ullman — some of the most thoughtful, accessible prose on programming you’ll find anywhere — reach a wider audience. We excerpted her “Close to the Machine” when it came out in 1997, and I had the pleasure of interviewing her at the time. She later did some more memorable writing for Salon.
Now she’s written a wonderful novel called “The Bug.” You can read the excerpt here, and my new interview with her here.
Salon Blog watch
Comillas49: “A father, a son, a friend, and a freakin’ big ocean.” Three men and the sea, and a blog to chronicle the whole thing. They leave from Newport in about two weeks, en route to Spain.
Reverse Cowgirl: The “You’re A Bad Man, Aren’t You?” Fundraiser.
Tufte vs. PowerPoint
A long long time ago I wrote a piece about the work of Edward Tufte — “data artist” and scourge of badly presented information — and I suppose that is why I found, in my mailbox upon my return from vacation, a copy of a new booklet he has written, “The Cognitive Style of PowerPoint.“
It’s a wonderful broadside against the use of PowerPoint to dumb down the relationship between speaker and audience. Here’s one choice bit:
| PP convenience for the speaker can be costly to both content and audience. These costs result from the cognitive style characteristic of the standard default PP presentation: foreshortening of evidence and thought, low spatial resolution, a deeply hierarchical single-path structure as the model for organizing every type of content, breaking up narrative and data into slides and minimal fragments, rapid temporal sequencing of thin information rather than focused spatial analysis, conspicuous decoration and Phluff, a preoccupation with format not content, an attitude of commercialism that turns everything into a sales pitch. |
Tufte — whose analysis of failures in the presentation of data preceding the Challenger space shuttle disaster is one of the highlights of his previous work — also deconstructs a slide from a Boeing PowerPoint report on the damage to the Columbia shuttle. And the booklet offers a reprise of Peter Norvig’s hilarious PowerPoint rendition of the Gettysburg address.
The thing is all of 24 pages, but as Tufte’s readers know, he packs a lot into a page.
Is there an analogy in the house?
People who create software are forever trying to explain their somewhat obscure disipline by offering friendly analogies. The most common one is that making software is like building buildings. Recently there’s been some discussion of this notion, including an article on Kuro5hin suggesting that “the software construction analogy is broken.”
Maybe making software is more like politics, or writing laws. Or like writing music. Or like growing critters in vats. Or like…
Brian Marick and Ken Schwaber are trying to broaden the thinking in this area and are organizing an event at an upcoming software conference that they call the Analogy Fest: “The Analogy Fest is an attempt to manufacture serendipity, to create the circumstances in which clever people might have an ‘Aha!’ moment. We’ll do that by having semi-structured, small group conversations about papers that draw analogies between software development and something else.”
Sounds interesting to me. I think they’re still looking for more papers to make the event happen.
Click here
If you used an IBM PC in the 1980s — if you used one a lot — you came to know, and perhaps love, the feel of the old IBM keyboards. They were solid. The keys moved. They clicked. Over time, as every aspect of PC manufacturing faced the grim reaper of cost-cutting, keyboards became flimsy and disposable pieces of plastic. The touch and feel of the old IBMs became a lost artifact of the early PC era.
So I was thrilled to read (on MSNBC, via Gizmodo) that somebody is still making a contemporary equivalent of those old keyboards. They cost about $50, or five to ten times the price of today’s junky keyboards, but boy, I think it’s probably worth it.
Back
I was mostly offline for a few days, on vacation, then intended to post once I was back home, but my machine at work that runs Radio rebooted and I couldn’t reach it remotely. I’m back now and the Radio is on again…
