This vacation thing is upsetting all my routines, and I haven’t been crawling around the Salon blogspace as regularly. Sorry — will catch up with all of you soon. I’ve actually been trying to do some offline reading, including the latest Wired, in which I find this prediction from Marc Andreessen: “All of the technology underneath the Internet is hitting critical mass, at the exact point when people expect nothing. That’s a prescription for the next boom. But I don’t know when.”
As a dyed-in-the-wool contrarian I’m inclined to agree. At the height of the boom, in 1999, no one wanted to hear a voice of moderation suggesting that markets could head south. And today, too many depressed stockholders are so deep in their funks they can’t imagine a scenario in which technology could grow again. It will. Maybe it’s time we simply demanded that every technology-company CEO tattoo on his or her forehead “THIS IS A CYCLICAL BUSINESS.” Always has been. Just remember to sell the next time someone tells you “The business cycle has been rendered obsolete!” And to keep in mind that whether the stocks are up or down, your computer on the Internet can still do extraordinary things undreamed of less than a decade ago.
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